Pemodelan Tren Kasus Hiv dan Klasterisasi Wilayah menggunakan Algoritma K-Means dan Decision Tree - Studi Kasus di Kabupaten Bogor

Infectious diseases remain a dynamic and evolving public health threat, requiring data-driven approaches for early detection and targeted policy planning. This study aims to model spatio-temporal trends and clustering patterns of HIV transmission in Bogor Regency during the period 2020–2023 by utilizing a combination of unsupervised and supervised machine learning techniques. The dataset was obtained from the Bogor Regency Health Office and includes annual data on the number of HIV cases across 40 sub-districts. The research methodology consists of data preprocessing stages, clustering using the K-Means algorithm, and classification using a Decision Tree model. The preprocessing steps include data integration, attribute selection, temporal aggregation, handling of missing data, and normalization using Z-score. K-Means clustering is applied to identify hidden patterns in the development of HIV cases, resulting in three distinct clusters based on multi-year trends. The resulting cluster labels are then used as target classes in the supervised classification process. The Decision Tree classification model demonstrates high accuracy in predicting cluster membership, indicating a strong relationship between the temporal patterns of HIV cases and cluster identity. The integration of clustering and classification techniques provides a robust analytical framework for understanding the dynamics of HIV transmission, while also supporting the formulation of more precise, evidence-based, and region-specific public health interventions.