Comparative Analysis of Multiple Linear Regression and Random Forest in Predicting Student Academic Performance

This study aims to compare the performance of Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) and Random Forest Regression (RFR) in predicting student performance based on academic scores. Student performance is defined as the average of math scores, Reading Scores, and writing scores. This study uses a quantitative approach with a comparative design based on predictive modeling. The data used is secondary data from the Student Prediction dataset obtained through the Kaggle platform, which was processed using the Python programming language through the Google Colab platform. The analysis stages included the formation of performance variables, the separation of training and test data with a ratio of 80:20, model training, and evaluation using the Mean Squared Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and coefficient of determination (R²) metrics. The results show that the Multiple Linear Regression model produced an MSE value of 2.74 × 10⁻²⁸, an MAE of 1.51 × 10⁻¹⁴, and an R² of 1.000. Meanwhile, Random Forest Regression produced an MSE of 0.296, an MAE of 0.375, and an R² of 0.998. These findings indicate that both models have a very high level of accuracy, but Multiple Linear Regression provides the best performance. This is due to the strong linear relationship between the input variables and the target variables formed directly from the combination of academic values. Thus, the linear regression model is proven to be more suitable for use in data structures that have simple linear relationships compared to ensemble-based models.