ANALISIS PERAMALAN (Forecasting) PRODUKSI KARET (Hevea Brasiliensis) DI PT PERKEBUNAN NUSANTARA IX KEBUN SUKAMANGLI KABUPATEN KENDAL

Rubber plant productivity is affected by production factors such as amount of labour, amount of land area, number of productive tree, manure and rainfall. Production factors must be controlled to meet optimum rubber production, due to the increasing need of rubber. Rubber consumption on 2009 is 9,277 millions ton, while on 2010 increase become 10,664 millions ton. World crude rubber is able to provide 9,702 millions ton on 2009 and 10,219 million ton on 2010. Factor that influence rubber harvest result is the benchmark to get the decision to support the rubber achievement harvest optimally. The purposes of this research is to know and forecasting the harvest result of rubber production in PT Perkebunan Nusantara IX (PTPN IX) Sukamangli estate in the future i.e. 2015, 2016 and 2017. This research used descriptive analytical method. The data analysis used forecasting with ARIMA analysis. The base on ARIMA model, forecasting result for rubber production in 2015 amounted to 325675.9 kg (Quarter I), 396571.3 kg (Quarter II), 338552.1 kg (Quarter III), 258359.4 kg (Quarter IV). In 2016 amounted to 356854.6 kg (Quarter I), 442136.9 kg (Quarter II), 387335.1 kg (Quarter III), 293983.5 kg (Quarter IV). In 2017 amounted to 395750.9 kg (Quarter I), 492849.0 kg (Quarter II), 424360.7 kg (Quarter III), 328790.9 kg (Quarter IV). The result of forecasting rubber production showed that the rubber production while be increases on 2017.   Keywords: ARIMA,  multiple regression, production factors, rubber production