ANALISIS TEKNIKAL HARGA SAHAM DENGAN METODE ARIMA

Security analysis consist of two types of analysis, that is tecnical analysis and fundamental analysis, Technical  analysis to test wheater historical data will predict stock prices as a consideration to buy or sell an investment’s instrument. Meanwhile fundamental analysis is to determine the important factors of basic’s finance and company’s economic factors like company’s stock valuation. In fact, investors tend to emphasize the security consideration on technical analysis and give more weight on it, Unfortunately researchs have been conducted in Indonesia are mostly focus on fundamental variabels.Therefore it is to conduct the research on technical analysis in security prices to predict IHSG on stock market proxied in BEI.ARIMA model was involved to predict the data in the study. ARIMA is a model to produce forecasting from historic data. The data in this research were collelected from daily IHSG during 2 Januari2013-30 Desember 2013. The indicated that is data not stationary, There after, in order ARIMA can be applied then the data was formed in the first diferencing. Based on the correlogram plot, it was found that two autocorrelation (lag 1, lag 32) were significant. Lastly, the model is soundly predict mean precentage error 0,06%, it shows the forecasting un bias becauce limited of zero